Some readers may be familiar with the First Law of Advice, but the Second and Third Laws are neither so well-known nor so obvious, so our expert provides two illustrative examples to show how they work
Learning to give good advice is so important to technologists that special Laws of Advice have been developed. The first of these is often stated as "The correct advice is the desired advice." However, this form of the law leaves ambiguous whether the recipient wants correct advice or whether the desired advice is by definition the "correct advice." A much clearer and completely unambiguous statement is this form of the First Law of Advice:
The correct advice to give is the advice that is desired.
One of the truly classic examples of good advice is that given to the mayor of Pittsburgh in the fall of 1920. A major city highway, built on the side of a hill, began sliding one piece at a time down onto some railroad tracks below. With every heavy rain, more mud and parts of the road washed down, causing many of the railroad tracks to be unusable. All efforts to remove the mud and keep the tracks operational were ineffective against the massive force of the mud slide.
Several solutions were offered by local engineering and construction firms and by "concerned citizens." One was to pave the entire side of the hill to prevent erosion. Another was to build a metal structure to support the road and protect the tracks from further mud slides. All the suggestions would have been quite expensive, and this caused thoughtful people to wonder how or if the city could pay for the necessary work. Furthermore, no one knew if any of the proposed ideas would really solve the problem.
The mayor recognized that he needed good technical advice, and he ultimately hired G. W. Goethals as a consultant. Goethals had served as chief engineer for the Panama Canal and had acquired considerable experience with landslides. His expertise was evident not only in his past experience but also in his consulting fee: $1000 per day - an unheard-of sum at that time.
After only one day of study, Goethals was ready with his advice and with his bill. His advice to the city was simply, "Let it slide."
The opposition party and one of the newspapers made sport of the city administration for paying so much for this advice. The mayor rightly argued, however, that it was a small price to pay to learn that none of the more expensive proposals would work. The mayor chose to follow this most economical advice and permitted the hill to slide.
Whether technically right or wrong, the consultant's advice was the desired advice. It called for no construction expenses for which funds would have to be obtained. Furthermore, any other solution would have been open to attack by those engineering and construction firms whose proposals had been rejected in favor of the winning contractor. The desired advice was clearly the correct advice.
This classic example also stands up well in terms of the Second Law of Advice:
The desired advice is revealed by the structure of the hierarchy, not by the structure of technology
and the Third Law:
Simple advice is the best advice.
Another classic example that obeys all three Laws was the advice given to the vice president of a petroleum company during the 1920s. The company had discovered a major oil deposit of high quality that could be refined economically into gasoline and other products. But there was a problem. The resultant gasoline had a greenish tint that the refinery had been unable to remove. Because all gasoline at that time was clear, like water, the marketing group believed there would be considerable customer resistance to an "impure looking" gasoline even though it worked as well as any gasoline then available.
The production manager submitted his proposal for solving the problem, a proposal that called for complete modernization of the refinery. Such improvements, he reasoned, provided the best hope for producing a clearer liquid. The company's chief chemist objected on the grounds that there was no proof that refinery modifications would result in a better product. Removing the greenish tint was a very difficult chemical problem that had defied every attempt at solution by the chemical research group. The chief chemist, therefore, recommended an expanded research program to find a solution in the shortest possible time. While this would be substantially cheaper than modernizing the refinery, it would require an expansion of the laboratory and the hiring of several chemists and laboratory assistants.
Rather than adopting either solution, the vice president wisely turned to an outside consultant, a chemical engineer of good reputation in academic circles who had consulted before in the petroleum industry.
The consultant listened to the proposal of the chief chemist and then to that of the production manager. He talked to engineers and managers at the refinery and to chemists in the laboratory. Then he returned to his university for further study and deliberation. If he were to recommend more experimental work, the chief chemist would be pleased. This was clearly the chief chemist's desired advice. On the other hand, a recommendation to modernize the refinery was the desired advice of the production manager.
The important thing for the consult ant, however, was to determine what advice was desired by the vice president. The vice president clearly did not want to be responsible for choosing either of the proposals already presented. He wanted to avoid responsibility for any decision that would appear to favor either of his subordinates. If such a decision had to be made, it would be best to attribute it to an outsider. This, the consultant discerned, was the real reason why he had been hired by the vice president. But even better for the vice president would be a totally different solution that played no favorites. Finding such a solution became the real challenge for the consultant.
After several weeks of additional work, the consultant was ready with a uniquely neutral recommendation - one that required neither research work nor modernization of the refinery. His advice to the vice president was simple: "Advertise the color."
The marketing success of the greenish gasoline and the fact that all gasoline is now artificially colored demonstrate once again that advice found by studying the structure of the hierarchy - not the structure of technology - is the desired advice. It also substantiates the Third Law. Indeed, simple advice is the best advice.